Mountain West football preview 2023: Is Boise State back? Will the basement get better?

In a world of realignment chaos, the Mountain West has remained stable. It hasn’t been impacted by conference realignment (even if San Diego State kind of tried), The same handful of teams have been at the top of the league for several years. It typically finishes first or second among the Group of 5 leagues in the computer rankings that determine league payouts.

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But there’s no doubt 2022 represented a drop-off for the conference. Boise State struggled out of the gate, Fresno State stumbled when quarterback Jake Haener got hurt, San Diego State fell back to the pack and the bottom fell out at the bottom of the standings. The league’s quarterback play was abysmal.

With the American losing three heavyweights in Cincinnati, UCF and Houston, the Mountain West believes it could be poised to become the top G5 league again and earn a New Year’s Six spot for the first time since the 2014 season.

Read all of our conference previews: ACC | Big 12 | American | Pac-12| MAC |SEC | Sun Belt | 

What’s new in the Mountain West?

1. Boise State might be back, and you might’ve missed it. The Broncos went 7-5 in Andy Avalos’ debut season in 2021, their worst record since 1998. Then they started the 2022 season 2-2 with a loss to UTEP, the offensive coordinator was fired and quarterback Hank Bachmeier transferred out. Casual observers may have put them back of mind.

But the Broncos went 8-2 the rest of the way, including 8-0 in Mountain West play, though they dropped the conference championship game to Fresno State and Haener. With the emergence of Taylen Green at quarterback and a slew of playmakers back, the Broncos may be poised to return to the top of the Group of 5.

2. It was a fairly quiet coaching carousel. Nine of the Mountain West’s 12 schools have changed coaches since the end of the 2019 season. But this year, there’s only one new coach: Barry Odom at UNLV.

3. The bottom of the league should be improved. Several MWC programs dropped near the bottom of the FBS last year, sparked by poor offense. But programs like Colorado State, Hawaii and Nevada should get back on the upswing this season.

4. San Diego State may have figured out an offense. The Aztecs started 2-3 last year, failing to pass for more than 65 yards in their first four games against FBS opponents. Brady Hoke made an offensive coordinator change and brought in Ryan Lindley as QB coach. The Aztecs won five of their next six, and converted safety Jalen Mayden threw for 2,030 yards over the last eight games. Mayden is back, and Lindley is now the offensive coordinator.

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5. No more divisions. The Mountain West has joined other conferences in scrapping divisions, even though it had two of the most simple division names in the sport (Mountain and West). The top two teams will meet on the home field of the No. 1 team.

Starting QBs, 2023 vs. 2022

Tier 1

Boise State

If you’re not a regular Mountain West observer, get ready to know the name Taylen Green. Boise State’s 6-foot-6 dual-threat sophomore QB looks like Vince Young with his long strides in the open field. He improved immensely as the season went on and has running backs George Holani (two 1,000-yard seasons) and Ashton Jeanty (821 yards as a freshman last year) with him in the backfield. Last year’s defense finished 15th nationally in points allowed per game and is led by linebacker DJ Schramm. It will replace several starters but has a lot of depth. The Broncos will need to get through a difficult first five games, including trips to Washington, San Diego State and Memphis, plus UCF at home. If they get out relatively unscathed, this team should contend for a New Year’s Six bowl.

San Diego State

The Aztecs took a step back last year, going 7-6 in the second year of Brady Hoke’s second stint, after a 12-2 record in 2021, but as mentioned above, they could continue the improvement on offense if some new receivers emerge. The defense has been one of the best in the country for years, but the entire starting defensive line is being replaced after producing multiple NFL players in recent years. The first half of the schedule is very difficult as well, with games against Ohio, UCLA, at Oregon State, Boise State and at Air Force.

Air Force

The Falcons must replace a veteran QB and running back, but history shows that Troy Calhoun and the Air Force staff usually find the pieces. Three quarterbacks are fighting for the job, including Mountain West championship sprinter Zac Larrier, veteran Ben Brittain and Jensen Jones. John Lee Eldridge should be the top running back, and the offensive line brings back four starters. The defense finished 26th in yards per play allowed and fifth in third down percentage last year and brings multiple starters back at all three levels. For all of Calhoun’s success, with five 10-win seasons since 2014, he hasn’t won the Mountain West and has appeared in one conference title game. Perhaps the change of divisions will change that; the Falcons are no longer stuck with Boise State.

Tier 2

Fresno State

The Bulldogs won the Mountain West for the second time since 2018 last year, but they went 2-2 when Haener was out with injury, including a loss to UConn. Haener is gone, as is his top receiver and running back. Backup QB Logan Fife and UCF transfer Mikey Keene will battle for the job. The Fresno State defense finished 14th nationally in points per game allowed last year, and this year’s group could be even better, especially in the secondary. Trips to Purdue and Arizona State make for two winnable nonconference games. But the big question is whether the Bulldogs can get enough from the offensive skill positions.

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San Jose State

The Spartans won the Mountain West in 2020, fell back in 2021 but rebounded to 7-5 last year. They have as many seven-win seasons in the last two years (two) as they had from 2001 to 2019. Former Hawaii transfer QB Chevan Cordeiro is back after leading the league with 3,251 passing yards, and running back Kairee Robinson is back, too. The defense must replace Cade Hall and Viliami Fehoko, two of the conference’s last three defensive players of the year. This defense was No. 29 in scoring D a year ago. Nonconference games at USC, vs. Oregon State and at Toledo are challenging. After years of construction on one side of the stadium, SJSU has finally opened a new $70 million athletics building on the east side behind one sideline.

Wyoming

The Cowboys’ consistent success under Craig Bohl (six bowl-eligible seasons in seven years) is made even more impressive by the fact that they’ve lost several starters to transfer in each of the past few offseasons. The players have typically gone on to find success elsewhere, highlighting both Bohl and company’s ability to find and develop talent but also the tough parts of the job (the Cowboys have lost their leading receiver in two consecutive years). But there’s still a lot of talent, especially on the defense. They also added Northern Illinois running back Harrison Waylee as a transfer. The question is whether the Cowboys can ever find a competent passing attack again, this year with sixth-year senior Andrew Peasley running the show.

Tier 3

Colorado State

Jay Norvell had a Year Zero at CSU last year, seeing a roster exodus and relying on many freshmen, which made for an uneven 3-9 season (for example, quarterback Clay Millen led the FBS in completion percentage, but CSU allowed the most sacks in the country). Receiver Tory Horton should be one of the best in the league. The defense is a really experienced group and finished sixth in the conference in points allowed per game during league play. If the offensive line can block and Millen takes a step forward, it could be a big leap for the Rams, similar to what Norvell did at Nevada. Week 3’s game against Deion Sanders and Colorado may have a chance to be interesting.

Utah State

The Aggies won the Mountain West in 2021, then fell back to 6-7 after a slew of injuries. Unfortunately, they must replace their No. 1 quarterback, running back and receiver. Fortunately, quarterback Cooper Legas got a lot of playing time last year and has shined at times. Head coach Blake Anderson had to replace both coordinators, who left for jobs at Indiana and the Cleveland Browns. If an influx of transfers can fill holes, especially on defense, a bowl game looks more than reasonable again.

UNLV

The Rebels went 5-7 last year, the downtrodden program’s best record since 2013, but it wasn’t enough to save former head coach Marcus Arroyo’s job after a 1-6 finish to the year, including a loss to Hawaii. Odom comes in from Arkansas and has previous head coaching experience at Missouri. Quarterback Doug Brumfield is one of the more exciting players in the league and should be fun in Brennan Marion’s offense (Bobby Petrino was hired as OC but quickly left for Texas A&M). Receiver Ricky White is an emerging star, but a slew of running backs transferred out and must be replaced. The question is whether the team can fill enough sudden holes to finally reach a bowl game.

Tier 4

Nevada

The program had to be reset when Norvell left for Colorado State and took the best players with him. Ken Wilson’s first season was rough, with 10 consecutive losses to close the year, and now the Wolf Pack must replace their No. 1 quarterback, running back and receiver. Wilson has loaded up on Oregon transfers after his time there as co-defensive coordinator and inside linebackers coach. It’s hard not to see improvement if only because of how bad last year was, and the conference schedule is favorable without Boise State and Air Force.

New Mexico

Danny Gonzales, a favorite son of the program, has to enter this season on a hot seat with a 7-24 record in three seasons. Last year’s offense was abysmal, but adding former UAB interim head coach Bryant Vincent as offensive coordinator and former UAB quarterback Dylan Hopkins could provide a spark. The defense will no longer have fellow beloved son Rocky Long, who took the defensive coordinator job at Syracuse.

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Hawaii

Timmy Chang entered an impossible situation last year with the late roster exodus under former head coach Todd Graham. This should be a step forward, and there are some bright spots at running back and an influx of transfers. But it’ll take a few years to get this program up and running again.

Five-year performance and recruiting

(Key: “Sagarin rank” is the average national ranking in Jeff Sagarin’s all-Division I season ratings from 2018 to 2022, and “247 recruiting” is the average national ranking in the 247Sports Composite’s recruiting class rankings from 2019 to 2023. Winning percentages reflect the 2018-22 seasons.)

A coach breaks down the Mountain West

We asked a Mountain West coach to break down key teams, granting them anonymity to speak freely:

“Your first thought (about Boise State QB Taylen Green) is wow, that’s one big, good-looking athlete and he’s a specimen. You give him just a little bit of daylight, and he can hurt you. He threw the ball so much better in the second half of the season. Now you’re looking at a guy with a huge arm, great feet, tough to bring down. He’s as good a player as the league’s got.”

“(Air Force) had such a veteran guy at quarterback and running back that played so many snaps in this league. You have to assume there’s a bit of a learning curve. We know what to expect schematically, but managing those two positions is critical for them. Now, they may get even better. They manage it better than most people.”

“All those injuries were tough for Utah State to overcome. They’ve added a lot of guys with portal and (junior college) guys. If they can stay healthy, they can be competitive. I’m not sure anybody knows what they’ll look like because there’s so many new bodies.”

“(San Diego State) is gonna be physical and play great defense like they always do. Toward the end of the season, they were a lot more organized. Them and Boise State both, the moves they made with midseason offensive coordinator moves, you saw them get better down the stretch. With an offseason and their ability to recruit, you expect they’ll be much more of an issue to defend again. They’ve always had speed and size. If they’re on a clear focus on what they want to do offensively, that changes the game for you.”

“(Fresno State) lost a lot and it’s hard to predict. Haener obviously made everything go. They lost wideouts, defensive linemen, they got hit as hard as anybody. They’re going to be a question mark. Where do they get the productivity at skill positions and the front? Early in the season, it’ll be interesting to see what they have.”

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Safe prediction for the Mountain West in 2023

Boise State wins the conference and is in contention for a New Year’s Six bowl.

Bold prediction for the Mountain West in 2023

Colorado State beats Colorado and gets to a bowl game.

Editor’s note: This is part of a series of State of the Conference previews of the 10 FBS conferences entering the 2023 season. Read the others here: Big Ten, Pac-12, AAC, ACC, Sun Belt, Big 12, SEC.

(Photo of Taylen Green: Loren Orr / Getty Images)

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